The final week of the college football regular season is here, which means it is the last chance for teams to earn a spot in their conference championship games. This year, several tight races have many scenarios, permutations and complicated tiebreakers coming into play.
In an attempt to make sense of what to watch and root for, we plotted all of them out (or almost all of them, thanks Big 12) and gave the likelihood of each combination of results according to Austin Mock’s projection model. Using Austin’s numbers, we can see how likely we are to get a six-way tie for second place in the Big 12, for example.
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As conferences continue to get bigger and divisions are going away, we will see more ugly, complicated, maybe even humorous tiebreakers decide title game berths. Divisions get a bad rap when they aren’t balanced (see the Big Ten West vs. the Big Ten East), but they do allow for a full round-robin inside the divisions, which makes for much cleaner tiebreakers.
This year, we could see computer rankings decide championship game berths in the American and the Mountain West, and that doesn’t even include the Big 12’s potential nightmare scenarios (all times listed are ET).
American
Teams still alive: Tulane, SMU, UTSA
Week 13 games that matter
Tulane 29, UTSA 16
Navy at SMU, noon on Saturday
Where things stand: Tulane, SMU and UTSA are all 7-0 in conference play heading into the final week and are two games ahead of fourth-place Memphis. The Tulane-UTSA game almost acts as a semifinal with the winner getting to the title game. If SMU beats Navy, SMU is in against the winner of that game.
If SMU loses, things get a bit murky because SMU didn’t play either Tulane or UTSA. At that point, AAC tiebreakers dictate “a composite average of selected computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe) after all games conclude the final weekend of the Conference regular season will be used to determine the Championship Game participant.” So that’s a fun bit of BCS-era nostalgia. That means we can’t definitively say which teams get in if Navy pulls off the upset against SMU (SMU is an 18.5-point favorite).
This composite currently has those teams ranked in this order: Tulane (18), SMU (34), UTSA (52.5). We are forced to make some assumptions that those rankings would hold in that order, but there is currently a decent gap between them in those rankings, so it’s reasonable that remains the case. The same tiebreakers apply to which team will host the title game.
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Scenario A: Tulane, SMU win (Tulane hosts SMU)
Projected chance: 53.7 percent
Scenario B: Tulane, Navy win (Tulane hosts SMU)
Projected chance: 4.7 percent
Scenario C: UTSA, SMU win (SMU hosts UTSA)
Projected chance: 38.2 percent
Scenario D: UTSA, Navy win (UTSA hosts Tulane)
Projected chance: 3.4 percent
Friday update
Tulane beat UTSA and will host the AAC title game. If SMU wins we avoid any tiebreakers and the Mustangs will make the title game. Even if SMU loses, it seems likely the Mustangs would have the edge in the computers ahead of UTSA and travel to Tulane anyway.
ACC
Florida State vs. Louisville
This game is set. Both teams have clinched a spot in the ACC title game, which will take place at 8 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 2, in Charlotte, N.C.
Big 12
Teams still alive (we think): Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Week 13 games that matter
Oklahoma 69, TCU 45
Texas 57, Texas Tech 7
BYU at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. on Saturday
West Virginia at Baylor, 7 p.m. on Saturday
Iowa State at Kansas State, 8 p.m. on Saturday
Where things stand: Texas is 7-1 with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State chasing at 6-2. If things get really weird, 5-3 teams Texas Tech, West Virginia and Iowa State are technically alive, we think. If OSU, OU and KSU all lose, a 6-3 Big 12 team would make the title game, with four, five or six teams finishing 6-3.
We thought doing this would be a good idea, a fun exercise to see the likelihood of different scenarios. We have the numbers, let’s put them to use, we thought. And then the Big 12 race is just sitting here with several permutations and complicated tiebreakers.
For starters, Texas is in the title game with a win. If Texas and Oklahoma State both win, that’s the matchup, and both teams are favored by double digits so it’s likely all of this is for nothing. There are a lot of scenarios where Texas is in with a loss, but that’s where things get weird.
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The conference released a statement to clarify some of the tiebreakers. Among the two-loss teams, there is a hierarchy where Oklahoma State has first crack at it followed by Oklahoma and then Kansas State. Even this statement more or less shrugs at what happens if Texas loses and we get a group of teams in second place with three losses.
Finally! The Big 12 has released info about its tiebreakers: pic.twitter.com/vz2yLlqORD
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) November 20, 2023
We listed out the likelihood of the three simplest scenarios and threw in the total chaos six-way tie for second place for fun. The three simplest scenarios add up to 81.9 percent, meaning it’s plausible something at least a little messy happens.
Scenario A: Texas, Oklahoma State win (Texas vs. Oklahoma State)
Projected chance: 71.4 percent
Scenario B: Texas, Oklahoma win, Oklahoma State lose (Texas vs. Oklahoma)
Projected chance: 8.4 percent
Scenario C: Oklahoma State and Oklahoma lose, Kansas State wins (Texas vs. Kansas State)
Projected chance: 2.1 percent
Chaos scenario six-way tie: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all lose and West Virginia wins (Texas vs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)
Projected chance: 0.08 percent
Friday update
Oklahoma started the day with a comfortable win against TCU and removed any chance of a five- or six-way tie. Texas followed with a blowout win against Texas Tech to book a spot in the title game.
It’s now simple. Texas is in. If Oklahoma State wins, the Cowboys face Texas. If Oklahoma State loses, Oklahoma gets Texas again. Kansas State will not defend its Big 12 title.
Big Ten
Teams still alive: Iowa (clinched Big Ten West), Michigan, Ohio State
Week 13 game that matters
Ohio State at Michigan, noon on Saturday
Where things stand: The winner of Ohio State at Michigan faces Iowa in Indianapolis. Austin’s projections have Michigan winning 54.3 percent of the time.
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Conference USA
Liberty vs. New Mexico State
This game is set. Jacksonville State isn’t eligible so there is no drama heading into the final week. Liberty is 11-0 overall, and New Mexico State, fresh off a win at Auburn, is 6-1 in C-USA, two games ahead of the next team not named Jacksonville State in the standings. Liberty will host the Aggies in a rematch of a Week 2 game that Liberty won 33-17. The championship game is set for 7 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 1.
MAC
Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio)
This game is set. Toledo is undefeated in MAC play and three games clear in the MAC West. Miami is 6-1, one game ahead of 5-2 Ohio in the MAC East and has the head-to-head tiebreaker. These teams will meet at noon on Saturday, Dec. 2 in Detroit.
Mountain West
Teams still alive: UNLV, Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State
Week 13 games of note
Boise State 27, Air Force 19
San Jose State at UNLV, 3 p.m. on Saturday
Where things stand: UNLV is 6-1, one game ahead of 5-2 Air Force, Boise State and San Jose State. We also get these four teams facing each other in the final week, which will help avoid the messiest tiebreaker scenarios, but we could still see a three-way tie.
UNLV is in with a win and would host the title game.
The loser of Air Force at Boise State is out. If UNLV wins, the winner of that game is in.
If UNLV loses, there will be a three-way tie between the Rebels, San Jose State and the Air Force-Boise State winner, and computer rankings would get involved because head-to-head results would not be able to break the tie. Using the same computers as the AAC, UNLV (26) is solidly ahead of the rest with Air Force (49) next. Air Force could be close enough to be able to host if UNLV loses. Boise State (64) and San Jose State (67) are incredibly close so that one is too close to call.
It currently looks like UNLV could lose and get in regardless, based on the Rebels’ lead in the computer rankings. That said, a loss would drop UNLV in the computers.
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There’s a good chance of some chaos. Austin’s projections favor San Jose State to win at UNLV despite the Rebels being three-point favorites on BetMGM.
Scenario A: UNLV, Boise State win (UNLV hosts Boise State)
Projected chance: 31.1 percent
Scenario B: UNLV, Air Force win (UNLV hosts Air Force)
Projected chance: 16.6 percent
Scenario C: San Jose State, Boise State win (UNLV hosts San Jose State or Boise State)
Projected chance: 34.2 percent
Scenario D: San Jose State, Air Force win (UNLV likely hosts Air Force)
Projected chance: 18.1 percent
Friday update
Boise State eliminated Air Force on Friday, but we need to wait for the UNLV-San Jose State game to know if the Broncos are in or not.
Pac-12
Teams still alive: Washington (championship game berth clinched), Oregon, Arizona
Week 13 games that matter
Oregon 31, Oregon State 7
Arizona at Arizona State, 3:30 p.m. on Saturday
Where things stand: At 8-0 in Pac-12 play, Washington is assured of a top-two spot. Oregon is 7-1 and is in with a win against rival Oregon State, a top-20 opponent. Red-hot Arizona is 6-2 and heavily favored to win at Arizona State. The Wildcats would have the tiebreaker over the Ducks if Arizona wins and Oregon loses.
Austin’s projections give Arizona’s path to Las Vegas for the championship game an 11.8 percent chance of happening. Oregon makes it the other 88.2 percent of the time.
Friday update
Oregon beat Oregon State without much trouble and the Pac-12 title game is set: Washington vs. Oregon.
SEC
Georgia vs. Alabama
This game is set. Both teams are undefeated in SEC play and are two games clear of the closest competition. This will be the fourth time since 2012 these two teams have met in the SEC title game. Alabama won the previous three meetings. They will play at 4 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 2 in Atlanta.
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Sun Belt
Teams still alive: Troy (Sun Belt West clinched), Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, Old Dominion
Week 13 games that matter
Georgia State at Old Dominion, 2 p.m. on Saturday
James Madison at Coastal Carolina, 3:30 p.m. on Saturday
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State, 3:30 p.m. on Saturday
Where things stand: Troy is already in the title game with a 6-1 conference record, two games ahead of the closest team in the Sun Belt West standings. Troy also will secure hosting rights in the title game with a win at 3-8 Southern Miss. The Trojans’ opponent is less clear.
Even after losing last week, James Madison would be in the lead in the Sun Belt East with a 6-1 conference record, but it is not postseason-eligible. Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina are both 5-2 in conference play, and Old Dominion has a shot at 4-3.
Coastal beat App State in October so the Chanticleers have the head-to-head tiebreaker and control their destiny heading into the final week, but they are 9.5-point underdogs against the Dukes. App State is in with a win and a Coastal loss, which is the most likely scenario according to the projections. ODU would have the tiebreaker if all three teams finish 5-3.
Scenario A: Coastal wins (Coastal advances to title game)
Projected chance: 18.8 percent
Scenario B: App State wins, Coastal loses (App State advances to title game)
Projected chance: 57.5 percent
Scenario C: App State and Coastal lose, Old Dominion wins (ODU advances to title game)
Projected chance: 12.9 percent
Scenario D: App State, Coastal, Old Dominion all lose (Coastal advances to title game)
Projected chance: 10.9 percent
(Photo of Ollie Gordon II: Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
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